We often see a discussion between two different views, so how do we decide which view is likely to be more viable. Many will argue that the opposing views are equal possibilities and therefor both should be considered.  However this is seldom the case, especially in debates about the supernatural, beyond the reality of the world, obtained through our senses. For example, there any many religious people who have accepted the enormous amount of observed evidence of evolution but insist that this needs an intelligent designer and is not a random development, because life forms are so complex, that the odds are too great to create life by chance.
It is not the purpose of this post to go deeper into this argument, if have done that on my website and in my book, but just to point out why one explanation is obviously stronger than the other. One relies on observation that random mutations are everywhere, that there are more solutions to the same problem. Vision for example, has many varying solutions from very simple to very complex, where one solution would have been sufficient. We observe that life forms are never perfect and most (over 90%) went extinct all evidence of random selection versus proposing a designer out of thin air. Another example is the question of the existence of an afterlife, which requires an ongoing awareness after death. We observe that awareness is a brain function and that awareness deteriorates when the brain does (Alzheimer’s). Conclusion: Brain dead, awareness dead, based on observed facts. That awareness gets somehow restored and continues on, is pure unobserved speculation. So again we have one side supported by facts and another side using speculation. An other example is the God debate. No real observable evidence that there is one, but  pure speculation that there is.
We see this kind of debate in many areas where the two sides are not equal so take your pick. Reality or speculation out of thin air, which side is more likely to be correct?

False memory syndrome is a condition when a person strongly believes in incorrect memories. Memories can be altered by outside influences and may be the result of  “recovered memory therapy”, according to forensic psychologist Ralph Underwager, sociologist Richard Ofshe and psychologist Elizabeth Loftus. This therapy includes hypnosis, sedatives and probing questions when it is believed that repressed memories are part of their client’s problem. Self help books and even the recovered memory therapist can be the cause of false memories. Elizabeth Loftus used this “therapy” to implant a memory of being lost in a mall as a child and found that 25% of her test  subjects actually were believing that the memory was real.
Another memory disturbance is called “Confabulation”.  Since people do not remember with 100% accuracy, partly remembered events are often filled with subtle fabrications. These can be drawn from other unrelated events, dreams or fantasies while they seem to be absolutely real when recalled. Confabulation can contain historical facts, spoken language, books read, fairy tales and non-personal information. When interviewed the story is often drawn from the patient’s actual experience including fantasized or read material. The patient believes strongly in these distorted memories. Research points the way that confabulation is a dysfunction of the cognitive process that controls the retrieval of memory.
Individuals, who have gaps in their memory are motivated to fill in and complete the memory and are absolutely sure the memory is correct. False memories and confabulations are problems  for witnesses in court cases and have resulted many times in the conviction of innocent people. Confabulation is often the case when subjects recall something unusual and is convinced that the memory is from a real event. This explains why some people are absolutely convinced when they recall being abducted by aliens or visited Heaven. Patients whose brain function became undetectable by our instruments but were revived often report bizarre memories when the return of the brain function  rebuilts memories by confabulation which are later recalled as a real experience, as in NDEs (Near death Experiences).
(JohnsonMK&Raye “False Memories and Confabulation”, LandonR& Turner “Delusion and Confabulation)

We have five senses which show us the reality of the world around us. We also have imagination which is unlimited. We can imagine anything, When I see a tree, I know it is there, However, if I am in the desert I can imagine a tree which isn’t there and as long as I am realistic, I know it isn’t there. If I am delusional I can believe it is there. I can touch (feel) an object and therefor know it is real but I can also imaging an object when in reality it isn’t there but I wish it was.  The same reasoning goes for hearing, smelling and tasting. Our senses send chemical and electrical signals to the brain which then must interpret it to inform us what these signals really mean. Since our birth we learn their meaning by trial and error until we separate imagination from reality and live objects from non-animated ones. An imaginary friend, that many children envision, eventually gives way to reality.
Imagination, however does not have such limits, we can imagine anything, whether it is an imaginary tree or an alien in a UFO. Books are written, imagining other worlds, impossible physics, monsters, ghosts, miracles and so on and on. We can speculate without limit on “solutions” about non-existing phenomena and about things we still do not understand but they have no real value until we have some realistic evidence that there is some truth to these speculations. Sometimes we find that evidence, sometimes the evidence is contradictory and then we must adjust our speculation accordingly. If we accumulate more evidence, the speculation can become a theory and some theories accumulate so much observable evidence that they become facts, even if these facts later need finer adjustments when more knowledge accumulates.
Imagination with no evidence is of course great as a thought experiment and is unlimited but  not proof of anything. Conclusions drawn from an imaginary  condition is tempting but has no value. When, without any evidence, we conclude that since we observe thunder and lighting there must be  a god “Thor” throwing his hammer into the sky, there is no connection between the observation and the imaginary cause. The same goes for the “argument that the universe is so complicated, fine tuned and large that there must be a creator. Here again there is no connection between an observable fact and the speculation of its cause.
When writing became invented, many of these imaginary guesses were written down. Based on later observations some were found to point in the right direction. Some needed to be disregarded but were not. We now know the world is round and not flat as deduced from earlier observations. We must adjust with new findings.
Speculation about the existence of a Deity is pure imagination. No observable facts. Instead the current knowledge point in the direction of random events being the case. Prayers being heard some times and sometimes not , the miracle healings which sometimes occurs to religious and non-religious people,  are proof of random events., good luck or bad luck! We should rely on human knowledge and painfully acquired experience through trial and error. No cancer cure was “coded “ in the Bible  as some want to make us believe.  Imagining the supernatural is an easy way out which creates  more problems and delays the progress of our continues search for true answers by pretending that we have already all the answers.
Imagination is important and has its place because it does starts our thinking “outside the Box” of our five direct senses but we must reject those which show no observable evidence.