Many Creationists will argue that it is impossible of life starting by chance. They say the probability is so small (billions and billions to one) that even if the time span of the earth was more than 10,000 years and the universe was 13.8 billion years old, there wasn’t time enough for it to happen and therefor it “proves” that we need a “designer” to do that. It shows that they have no understanding of probability laws or deliberately distort it.
I suggest they read the new book “ The Improbability Principle, why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events happen Every Day” by Statistician & Mathematician David J. Hand. This book has nothing to do with religion or evolution. It just explains what the “probability principle” is all about.
There are many examples of nearly impossible odds that have happened mentioned in that book., such as the one about Major Walter Summerford was struck by lighting three times and whose gravestone was hit 4 years after his death. What must be remembered is that although a probability is very low, say 1 in a trillion, trillion trillion it could happen tomorrow. With even with very high odds, it does not mean that it always needs a very long time to happen or even that the interval between 2 similar happenings takes a long time. If an event has odds of 100 to 1 it does not mean that it happens one time in every hundred events. It can happen any time and even two or more times in a row. Over a long period of time it would average out to 100:1. You can test this with a coin. The odds are 2:1. Tossing the coin does not result in one head followed by a tail all the time, You can have multiple tails or heads in a row. You cannot predict the order in which the coins may fall or how long an interval will be until a series of heads change in a tail.
Imagine a lottery in which 100 people take part for $1.00 a day and a draw for $100.00 is held every day. After 100 days not every one has won. Therefor there must be multiple winners and no winners. Repeat this over a long time and there will be people who win frequently and some who never win.
The book is full of examples of staggering odds, such as a state lottery drawing the same numbers twice in a row. If you want to argue using the probability principle, you must read it first.
Now let us get back to the claim of “impossible” odds. You cannot confuse “impossible” with “improbable” they are distinctly different. The “improbability” of you winning the lottery in a lifetime is correct, but it could happen tomorrow. I bet you that some creationists who confuse “impossible” with “improbable” buy lottery tickets, because no matter how BIG the odds are, it could happen ANYTIME.
I suggest they read the new book “ The Improbability Principle, why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events happen Every Day” by Statistician & Mathematician David J. Hand. This book has nothing to do with religion or evolution. It just explains what the “probability principle” is all about.
There are many examples of nearly impossible odds that have happened mentioned in that book., such as the one about Major Walter Summerford was struck by lighting three times and whose gravestone was hit 4 years after his death. What must be remembered is that although a probability is very low, say 1 in a trillion, trillion trillion it could happen tomorrow. With even with very high odds, it does not mean that it always needs a very long time to happen or even that the interval between 2 similar happenings takes a long time. If an event has odds of 100 to 1 it does not mean that it happens one time in every hundred events. It can happen any time and even two or more times in a row. Over a long period of time it would average out to 100:1. You can test this with a coin. The odds are 2:1. Tossing the coin does not result in one head followed by a tail all the time, You can have multiple tails or heads in a row. You cannot predict the order in which the coins may fall or how long an interval will be until a series of heads change in a tail.
Imagine a lottery in which 100 people take part for $1.00 a day and a draw for $100.00 is held every day. After 100 days not every one has won. Therefor there must be multiple winners and no winners. Repeat this over a long time and there will be people who win frequently and some who never win.
The book is full of examples of staggering odds, such as a state lottery drawing the same numbers twice in a row. If you want to argue using the probability principle, you must read it first.
Now let us get back to the claim of “impossible” odds. You cannot confuse “impossible” with “improbable” they are distinctly different. The “improbability” of you winning the lottery in a lifetime is correct, but it could happen tomorrow. I bet you that some creationists who confuse “impossible” with “improbable” buy lottery tickets, because no matter how BIG the odds are, it could happen ANYTIME.
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